Road to MetLife
40,000 simulations · 72 group games in

Find your match.

Pick any Round-of-32 tie below — by number, date or venue — and see the matchup the model lands on most often, who's favoured, and the likeliest alternatives for each slot. Built from Elo, live results, host-nation edge, and FIFA's Annex C rules.

Model favourite
Argentina
24.1%
to lift the trophy
Next in line
France
16.8%
title probability
Sims this run
40,000
tournaments simulated
Hosts in R32
3/3
reach knockouts ≥50%
↓Explore all 16 Round-of-32 ties — and the projected Round of 16
Section 02
Match Explorer

Find your match

Pick any tie — by round, number, date or venue — and see the matchup the model lands on most often, the likeliest alternatives for each slot, and who'd be favoured. Toggle to the Round of 16 to explore the projected last-16 ties.

Choose a fixture
1 / 16
↓ Tap to browse all 16 Round-of-32 ties
Sun Jun 28·3:00 PM ET
SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, USA

Model's most likely tie: South Africa vs Canada. If it plays out that way, Canada are favoured to go through — about 71.4% to win.

Slot A · Runner-up Group A
South Africa
100.0% lands here
Alternatives
South Africa100.0%
Slot B · Runner-up Group B
Canada
100.0% lands here
Alternatives
Canada100.0%
Single-game win probability
South Africa 28.6%71.4% Canada
Section 03
Team Tracker

Follow your country

Pick any nation and see every Round-of-32 venue they could land at, how likely each one is, and who they'd probably meet there.

Choose a country
↓ Search any of the 32 teams in the field
USA
Reaches R32
100.0%
Reaches QF
36.9%
Reaches SF
12.6%
Lifts trophy
1.7%

Across 40,000 simulations, USA show up in 1 of the 16 Round-of-32 ties — a combined 100.0% chance of reaching the knockouts.

Possible Round-of-32 stops
  • M81
    Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area
    Wed Jul 1 · likely opponent Bosnia and Herzegovina
    100.0%
    lands here
Section 04
Simulation Output

Round of 32, projected

The 16 ties. Each card shows the model's most-likely occupant of both slots, the split bar is single-game win probability, and the meter is how often that exact country lands there across 40,000 simulations.

Section 05
Simulation Output

The Round of 16, projected

The 8 projected last-16 ties. The headline figure is how often this exact matchup happens across 40,000 simulations — then who'd be favoured, and the likeliest alternative on each side.

Philadelphia · Lincoln Financial Field
Sat Jul 4
72%to happen
GermanyvsFrance
Single-game win probability
30.0%64.2%
Boston side
80.6% lands here
Germany80.6%
Paraguay19.4%
New York/New Jersey side
88.9% lands here
France88.9%
Sweden11.1%
Feeds · M74 → M77Boston / New York/New Jersey
Houston · NRG Stadium
Sat Jul 4
36%to happen
CanadavsMorocco
Single-game win probability
16.8%40.2%
Los Angeles side
71.4% lands here
Canada71.4%
South Africa28.6%
Monterrey side
50.0% lands here
Morocco50.0%
Netherlands50.0%
Feeds · M73 → M75Los Angeles / Monterrey
New York/New Jersey · MetLife Stadium
Sun Jul 5
34%to happen
BrazilvsNorway
Single-game win probability
50.0%14.2%
Houston side
64.5% lands here
Brazil64.5%
Japan35.5%
Dallas side
52.3% lands here
Norway52.3%
Ivory Coast47.7%
Feeds · M76 → M78Houston / Dallas
Mexico City · Estadio Azteca
Sun Jul 5
57%to happen
MexicovsEngland
Single-game win probability
24.1%64.0%
Mexico City side
64.1% lands here
Mexico64.1%
Ecuador35.9%
Atlanta side
88.8% lands here
England88.8%
DR Congo11.2%
Feeds · M79 → M80Mexico City / Atlanta
Dallas · AT&T Stadium
Mon Jul 6
48%to happen
PortugalvsSpain
Single-game win probability
23.7%56.5%
Toronto side
57.6% lands here
Portugal57.6%
Croatia42.4%
Los Angeles side
83.3% lands here
Spain83.3%
Austria16.7%
Feeds · M83 → M84Toronto / Los Angeles
Seattle · Lumen Field
Mon Jul 6
47%to happen
USAvsBelgium
Single-game win probability
36.9%36.8%
San Francisco Bay Area side
81.0% lands here
USA81.0%
Bosnia and Herzegovina19.0%
Seattle side
58.6% lands here
Belgium58.6%
Senegal41.4%
Feeds · M81 → M82San Francisco Bay Area / Seattle
Atlanta · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Tue Jul 7
50%to happen
ArgentinavsAustralia
Single-game win probability
80.5%10.0%
Miami side
94.8% lands here
Argentina94.8%
Cape Verde5.2%
Dallas side
52.2% lands here
Australia52.2%
Egypt47.8%
Feeds · M86 → M88Miami / Dallas
Vancouver · BC Place
Tue Jul 7
51%to happen
SwitzerlandvsColombia
Single-game win probability
28.9%52.3%
Vancouver side
60.2% lands here
Switzerland60.2%
Algeria39.8%
Kansas City side
85.0% lands here
Colombia85.0%
Ghana15.0%
Feeds · M85 → M87Vancouver / Kansas City
Section 06
Championship Odds

Title favourites

Share of simulations won outright. Three teams sit within a whisker of each other at the top — this is one of the most open World Cups in years by the numbers.

01Argentina
24.1%
02France
16.8%
03Spain
14.8%
04England
12.0%
05Brazil
4.8%
06Morocco
3.7%
07Netherlands
3.6%
08Portugal
3.1%
09Germany
3.1%
10Belgium
2.7%
11Colombia
2.6%
12USA
1.7%
Section 07
Full Field

Every team's odds

All 48 teams, ranked by title probability. 'Record' is W-D-L from results played so far; 'Win group' and the survival columns are how often each country clears each stage.

TeamGrpEloRecordWin grpReach R32Reach QFReach SFChampion
ArgentinaJ18772-0-0100%100%81%63%24.1%
FranceI18712-0-0100%100%64%45%16.8%
SpainH18751-1-0100%100%56%41%14.8%
EnglandL18281-1-0100%100%64%44%12.0%
BrazilC17652-1-0100%100%50%25%4.8%
MoroccoC17562-1-00%100%40%17%3.7%
NetherlandsF17541-1-0100%100%40%17%3.6%
PortugalK17681-1-00%100%24%14%3.1%
GermanyE17362-0-0100%100%30%16%3.1%
BelgiumG17420-2-0100%100%37%15%2.7%
ColombiaK16982-0-0100%100%52%18%2.6%
USAD16892-0-0100%100%37%13%1.7%
MexicoA17013-0-0100%100%24%13%1.7%
CroatiaL17151-0-10%100%15%8%1.2%
SenegalI16840-0-20%100%23%8%1.0%
SwitzerlandB16412-1-0100%100%29%8%0.8%
JapanF16621-1-00%100%23%9%0.8%
AustraliaD15791-0-10%100%10%4%0.2%
EcuadorE15990-1-10%100%9%4%0.2%
CanadaB15521-1-10%100%17%3%0.2%
AlgeriaJ15711-0-10%100%15%3%0.2%
NorwayI15572-0-00%100%14%3%0.2%
EgyptG15621-1-00%100%8%3%0.1%
AustriaJ15971-0-10%100%5%2%0.1%
Ivory CoastE15411-0-10%100%12%3%0.1%
SwedenF15101-0-10%100%3%1%0.0%
DR CongoK14740-1-10%100%3%1%0.0%
ParaguayD14881-0-10%100%3%1%0.0%
GhanaL14001-1-00%100%3%0%0.0%
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB14351-1-10%100%3%0%0.0%
IranG16200-2-00%0%0%0%0.0%
IraqI14100-0-20%0%0%0%0.0%
HaitiC13350-0-30%0%0%0%0.0%
QatarB14590-1-20%0%0%0%0.0%
JordanJ14000-0-20%0%0%0%0.0%
PanamaL15390-0-20%0%0%0%0.0%
CuracaoE13200-1-10%0%0%0%0.0%
CzechiaA14850-1-20%0%0%0%0.0%
TunisiaF14760-0-20%0%0%0%0.0%
TurkiyeD16060-0-20%0%0%0%0.0%
UruguayH16730-2-00%0%0%0%0.0%
ScotlandC15191-0-20%0%0%0%0.0%
Cape VerdeH13780-2-00%100%1%0%0.0%
UzbekistanK14450-0-20%0%0%0%0.0%
New ZealandG12760-1-10%0%0%0%0.0%
South KoreaA16131-0-20%0%0%0%0.0%
Saudi ArabiaH13950-1-10%0%0%0%0.0%
South AfricaA13921-1-10%100%3%0%0.0%
Section 08
Methodology

How the model works

No black box. Here is exactly what goes in and how the bracket comes out.

  1. A. Ratings in, goals out

    Elo → Poisson

    Each team carries a World Football Elo rating, snapshotted 14 Jun 2026 — already absorbing every result so far. For a given match the Elo gap becomes expected goal supremacy, and each side's goals are drawn from a Poisson distribution around that. Realistic scorelines, win/draw rates, and the goal differences the tiebreakers need.

  2. B. Results already count

    Played games are locked

    Every match that has actually kicked off is locked to its real score. Only unplayed fixtures are simulated, then added on top of points already banked — so the projection shifts as the group stage unfolds.

  3. C. Home advantage

    USA · Mexico · Canada

    The three host nations get an Elo bump in matches on their own soil, in the group stage and at knockout venues in their country. It is why the USA and Mexico project so strongly out of their groups.

  4. D. The new 32-team maths

    Annex C allocation

    Top two from each of the 12 groups, plus the 8 best third-placed teams ranked by points, goal difference, goals, then rating. The eight thirds are slotted using FIFA's real Annex C allocation, which guarantees no group-mate rematch in the Round of 32.

  5. E. Simulate, repeat, count

    40,000 tournaments

    The whole tournament — group stage through the final — is played out 40,000 times. For each slot the model records who landed there; the country shown is simply the most frequent occupant, and the meter is how dominant that pick was.